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Capital Investment in Infrastructure is an interesting component affecting Real Estate investment. It can be one of the most positive influencing factors in property appreciation. Hence, it can never be taken for granted. Frequently, an investor will discover during the examination period of a poential investment that infrastructure improvements are planned. These improvements may be water and sewer expansion adjacent the property or new road to be constructed. In many of these instances, and without a great deal of consideration, the investor aquires as much of the surrounding property without regard to the timing of the purchase.

It is this investment timing that I am most interested in here today. To help determine the best timing of an investment I find it helpful to differentiate the type of infrastructure change. First, separate the target properties into Direct and Indirect Impact Investments. A direct impact investment is one that is immediately impacted by the announcement of an infrastructure project. An Indirect Impact Investment is one that is not immediately affected by the announcement or the early stages of the infrastructure but its value will be significantly improved by the completion of the project.

Lets compare two properties located outside Raleigh, NC, home of North Carolinas Research Triangle Park. The first property is a direct impact property located contiguous Interstate 85. The second property is approximately one-half mile away from the first and has frontage on a secondary road leading to the Interstate 85 intersection.

This area is considered a bedroom community for the greater Raleigh area and is in itself growing at a rate faster than Raleigh and Durham. The I-85 corridor had been developing well prior to the announcement by the North Carolina DOT regarding the re-construction of the highway from Raleigh north to the Virginia State Line, (40 miles of construction). This project would eventually take eight years, cause major delays, re-route traffic and have a major impact on the economy and expansion of the entire corridor.

The first response of most investors was to move out of the area and invest in other locations. However, for those who analyzed the potential and adjusted the price, timing and selection of properties in this area turned out to be a very profitable investment. Let me explain.

Direct Impact Sample Analysis

The first property is contiguous to I-85, was in a very active market and priced at about $100,000 per acre prior to the highway re-construction announcement. The value of the property was tied directly to the commerce generated by its access to I-85. The property value was evaluated as a Direct Impact Investment over the 8 year life of the infrastructure project determined by the duration from the project announcement until its completion.

Upon announcement of the project the value of the property dropped from $100,000 per acre to about $70,000 per acre and remained at that level for the first three years of the investment.. In the fourth year of the project life the property began to gain in value at about the same rate as other properties not aligned with the highway, still there was no positive influence caused by the highway project. The primary growth in value came toward the end of the highway project, eighteen to twenty-four months from its completion.

Indirect Impact Sample Analysis

The second property is well off Interstate 85 and has virtually no value associated with the interstate related commerce. When the project was first announced, its value was $12,000 per acre. This value continued to grow at approximately the same rate as the value other properties where the value was driven by non-interstate related factors. However, during the last two years of the highway project the property value grew substantially. The rapid escalation in value was attributed to the highways increased commerce generating capability. The transition from no impact to high impact was the much increased commerce generating capacity of the enhanced infrastructure improvement combined with the overall maturing of the area.

It is key to notice that the quality of the investment is higher for the land investor if the investment is made in the Indirect Impact Parcel and the timing of the investment can make a massive difference in the rate of return. In comparing indirect impact to direct impact properties, the compounded rate of value growth with respect to the year invested through to the end of the project showed substantially higher returns for the indirect impact property.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of these results is that for the indirect impact property, years four and five were outstanding; however, yer six fell to the lowest level of the project life. This is primarily due to finite limits of Interstate 85 to continue to drive value. Most of the growth in value was related to the investment in the highway capital improvement. The investment in Interstate 85 over the long haul created a gain in revenue generating capability which forced the property value upward. It is to be noted that growth in the interstate traffic after the completion of the project is slow and its ability to create additional value would accordingly be slow.

These properties will not see really strong growth until a commerce center is established at this intersection. With capital investment in a commerce center there will be value growth similar to the growth we saw with the highway, but it will occur in a shorter cycle time. I would therefore argue that the risk component would be higher and the timing would be more crucial.

Summary

In summary, for an investor to successfully select a high yielding land investment with changing infrastructure certain conditions are in play:

1. The target property must not be directly impacted by the announcement of the change in a negative way.

2. The investment property will increase in value at the local, not project, driven rate in the early years of the project.

3. There must be more than twenty-four months remaining life in the project.

4. The Indirect Impact Investment will yield higher creating less risk for the life of the project.

5. Timing is of utmost importance for the investment.

6. Direct Impact Investments offer both a higher risk and a lower yield during the project life.

We have been able to employ this thinking over the last five years and have found that the concept applies to any long term capital project.